At a time when the world urgently needs collective, coordinated responses to climate change (accelerated most prominently by shifting to a sustainable energy future), rising trade tensions between major economies are beginning to cast a long shadow over global climate ambitions. The renewed tariff disputes – driven in part by shifts in US policy under the Trump administration – are poised to complicate the landscape for cooperation, innovation and the global supply chain for clean energy technologies.

The relationship between international trade and global sustainability is more tightly intertwined than many realise. Clean energy systems, electric vehicles and carbon capture solutions rely on global collaboration at every stage of development – from raw material extraction and advanced component manufacturing to financing and deployment.

When new tariffs are imposed – as has been the case with heightened US tariffs on Chinese solar panels and electric vehicle components which began during the Biden Administration – the price of green technologies rises, slowing their adoption. The effect is particularly pronounced in developing countries, where climate finance is already stretched thin and the cost of low-carbon infrastructure remains a central concern.

Beyond hardware and components, trade wars can also trigger an atmosphere of geopolitical mistrust, undermining existing cooperation on broader clean energy issues that require global alignment. Emissions standards, cross-border energy grids, technology transfers – these are all complex arrangements that desperately need more global cooperation, not less.

According to last month’s analysis from Carbon Brief, prolonged trade conflicts risk locking countries into protectionist policies at the very moment when global openness and resource-sharing are essential to scale up clean energy and meet net-zero targets. Without that alignment, the speed and scale of the global green transition will almost inevitably suffer.

While the current trade disputes are undoubtedly a challenge for coordinated action on energy sustainability, they also offer an opportunity for new leadership to emerge. If the US reduces its engagement in this diplomatic arena as trade tensions escalate, other regions — including the Middle East — are well positioned to step forward.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia, for example, have both committed heavily to becoming global sustainability hubs, with vast investments (public and private) flowing towards projects that boost their renewable energy production capacity and expertise. As trade friction disrupts the conventional flows of clean technologies and international policy frameworks stall, Middle Eastern nations are working harder than ever to position themselves as neutral, investment-friendly hubs for climate action, clean energy partnerships and technology trials.

Similarly, the European Union continues to lead by example, embedding climate goals into its industrial policies through mechanisms like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These policies are designed to ensure that climate ambition remains economically viable even amid shifting tariff landscapes.

Elsewhere, decentralised clean energy projects in Africa, Latin America, and Asia are gaining traction, highlighting an increasingly localised and resilient approach to sustainable development that does not depend entirely on the major powers for direction or momentum.

Brazil is a particularly noteworthy example, seizing the spotlight in anticipation of its COP30 leadership by unveiling new and ambitious action on climate change. Its newly launched industrial policy, Nova Indústria Brasil (NIB), seeks to position the country as a green superpower by leveraging its vast reserves of critical minerals, renewables resources, biocapacity, and manufacturing base to be a major producer and exporter of energy, materials, and technology.

In a world of trade wars and geopolitical realignments, energy sustainability solutions will have to become more decentralised, diversified and adaptable. While global cooperation remains the ideal (one that the World Future Energy Summit will always espouse and support), the emerging reality may look more like a patchwork of regional champions, each advancing sustainable energy solutions that fit their resources and priorities.

One certainty remains: climate change will not pause for the latest round of political cycles or tariff disputes. The global community’s ability to meet emissions reduction targets, accelerate clean tech adoption, and protect biodiversity depends on sustained collaboration, open trade, and knowledge-sharing across borders.

However, the renewed trade tensions serve as a reminder of the fragility of these relationships, underlining the need for greater resilience between countries and organisations with longstanding ties. Whether through regional cooperation, public-private partnerships, or grassroots innovation, there are still plenty of pathways for meaningful climate action – even in a world increasingly defined by economic rivalry.

Ultimately, the nations and industries that continue to prioritise collaboration and openness, even amid trade uncertainty, will be the ones best placed to lead the clean energy transition. And in doing so, they will help ensure that progress on climate does not become the latest casualty of geopolitics.